2012 Condo Market Predictions

In December, the number of condos available for sale in the C01 district was down to 761 from 864 in November. The number of condos sold was down from the previous month to 259 from 355 for a ratio of 0.34. These numbers push us down slightly bordering between a Seller’s and balanced Market.
Another solid year for appreciation of condos in the GTA. Year over year we saw an increase of about 8.2% from December to December. If you had your condo 100% paid off, no mortgage… your investment would have grown by 8.2%. If it was 50% paid off, you would have seen a 16.4% return, 20% paid off would have seen a 41.1% return and 5% paid off would have seen a 164.5% return. The effect of leveraging your investment is pretty incredible. It also has the reverse impact as well though as someone that had 5% down would have lost 100% of their capital if the market had dropped by only 5%.

The median price for August was slightly down to $367,700 from the previous month’s $371,000. The average number of days on market for the month was up to 33 days from 29.
I get a lot of questions about wether we’re going to see lower prices this year. Seems like there are many news reports indicating we will. I don’t think we will. As long as you can get a mortgage for less than 3.5% or 4% and our employment rate stays healthy… I can’t imagine a significant or prolonged drop in prices. Looking at the last 7 years of growth in the chart below, we can see sharp increases in prices testing the limits at times but soon continuing upwards.

I don’t like predicting the market, but I realize our clients want our opinion and we try to base our opinions on statistics. So I think the above graph says a lot about our point of view on the current market and what we should expect this year.








January 25th, 2012 at 4:59 pm
Hi there,
I stumbled across your blog from your Big Guide to Condos site. I have a question regarding the Listings to Sales graph you frequently use. I’m curious why you use the following ranges
0.37-1.00 Seller’s Market
0.19-0.37 Balanced Market
0.00-0.19 Buyer’s Market
This seems to skew the data quite a bit. The vast majority of the time, I have seen the following:
0.60-1.00 Seller’s Market
0.40-0.60 Balanced Market
0.00-0.40 Buyer’s Market
This is a much more balanced ratio and is also the one that is used by the Canadian Real Estate Association. Your thresholds make it virtually impossible to be a Buyer’s Market (even the Great Depression had a ratio above 0.20). This distorts the data and makes it appear to always be a Seller’s Market.
Thanks for reading.
January 27th, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Thanks for your comment. I too have seen different values for these measurements and decided to go with the lower figures as I feel they represent our condo market more accurately. For example, I believe in a Buyer’s market prices should be falling, in a Balanced market prices should be constant and in a Seller’s market prices should be rising.
If a Seller’s market started at 0.60 or even 0.50, we shouldn’t have seen any rise in prices between January 2005 and January 2007. In fact, we saw a price increase of 10.4% in that time.
I agree the figures I’ve chosen to use aren’t the most commonly used but I think they represent our market more accurately.
Have I won your over?