By: Chris Dawson & Elizabeth Machula

Condo Inventory Drops... Finally

Tags: Toronto Condos, Toronto Real Estate Newsletter, Toronto Condo Newsletter, Toronto Condo Blog

Let's catch up on the monthly data:

Over the last 5 years, the average number of condos on the market for sale in November has been 630. This past November, we had 1599 available. The condo inventory level remains 2.5x the average.

Over the last 5 years, the average number of condos on the market that sold in November has been 379. This past November, we had 340 sales, demand is about 10% lower than typical.

The supply vs demand chart rose slightly as we saw the number of condos available for sale decrease. This is a very predictable seasonal pattern of Sellers starting to remove their condo for sale as December approached. 

The November median price of a downtown condo was down from $644,500 to $625,000. Prices are down 15% from the March highs but down only 8% year over year. 

In November, the average price of a detached home was very slightly up from $1,470m to $1,477m. Since January 2017, home prices are up 10.5% while condos are up 35.8%.

Although the condo prices are disappointing, it's important to be aware that the price changes have not impacted all condos equally. The larger condos have been doing better than the smaller condos. Very likely due to down-sizer demand, the larger 2 bdrm plus suites still have a healthy demand where as the smaller 1 bdrm units have been much more impacted. Having said that, as I write this newsletter in mid-December, we are seeing an increase in activity of Buyers visiting the smaller units and writing offers... perhaps the December stats will bring us some good news. 

The detached home market has remained quite strong and resilient, particularly outside downtown. We're seeing significant price increases in most neighbourhoods outside of downtown Toronto. Just as with most cities around the world, Covid is encouraging moving to towards less density and working from home. Will this be a short trend or a permanent change in our culture... who knows. The vaccine on the horizon is already giving the markets a reason to rise and we expect to see that impact on condo prices as well.